Апреля 24, 2018

International Monetary Fund reviews Ukraine's GDP downward growth forecast for 2019

17 Апреля 2018, 09:25 | Melvin Schneider

Subhash Garg as economic affairs secretary is the “alternate governor” for India on the IMF’s board of governors

Subhash Garg as economic affairs secretary is the “alternate governor” for India on the IMF’s board of governors

He says the reason for the deficit is that total spending in the United States exceeds income.

The IMF has also strongly criticised the approach of the Trump administration to trade deficits.

The 3.9 per cent global growth forecast for 2018, 2019, he said, is being borne out by continuing strong performance in the euro area, Japan, China, and the U.S., all of which grew above expectations previous year.

The recent intensification of trade tensions started in early March with the US' announcement of its intent to levy steel and aluminum tariffs for national security reasons, he said, adding that the announcement has fed into several bilateral negotiations aimed at reducing U.S. trade deficits with individual trading partners.

However, the International Monetary Fund warns future growth prospects look challenging for advanced economies faced with ageing populations and low productivity growth, making it hard for household income growth to return to their pre-GFC pace.

"Once the cyclical upswing and U.S. fiscal stimulus have run their course, prospects for advanced economies remain subdued, given their slow potential growth".

This will require higher future revenues - presumably through tax increases - and slowing the rate of increase in public spending, while re-directing money towards infrastructure, boosting labour force participation and combating poverty.

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"The multilateral rules-based trade system that evolved after world war two and that nurtured unprecedented growth in the world economy needs strengthening".

Overall in India, growth was "lifted by strong private consumption as well as fading transitory effects of the currency exchange initiative and implementation of the national goods and services tax", the report said.

It also upgraded its forecast for USA growth in 2018 to 2.9%, up from 2.7% previously.

South Africa's economy grew by 1.3% in 2017 compared with a revised 0.6% in 2016. One third of that uplift in USA growth is attributed to the Trump tax reform.

"This IMF Statement follows recent positive reviews from the major credit rating agencies of our Government's economic plan and different priorities", Grant Robertson says.

The UAE is forecasting growth of 3.6 to 3.9 per cent for this year. It foresees unemployment at 5.5% this year and 5.2% next year. Growth in 2019 was lowered to 1.9 per cent from 2.2 per cent in the January forecast.

But risks to what would be the strongest growth in the global economy since 2010 include a sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

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