Апреля 21, 2018

IMD predicts high probability for a normal monsoon in 2018

16 Апреля 2018, 05:24 | Joan Schultz

IMD to issue forecast for 2018 southwest monsoon rains today

Rains, thunderstorm likely in Nagpur Max temp in Nagpur is expected to be 38 degree Celsius on Saturday

Previous year also, there was a normal monsoon forecast by the IMD. The IMD considers the Monsoon to be normal if the average rainfall is between 96 to 104 per cent of long period average. It comes to an average 89 cm for the country as a whole. The first stage forecast will be issued today and the second stage forecast will be issued in June.

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has said rainfall in 2018 will be normal at 100 per cent of the LPA.

IMD would come out with an update in early June. India receives 70% of its annual rainfall in the four-month period, which in turn irrigates over half of its farm lands lacking assured irrigation.

The MET department said that monsoon will be 97 per cent of long period average, which is normal for the season.

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There was a probability of 42 per cent for a normal rainfall, followed by 12 per cent for above normal, 30 per cent for below normal, two percent for excess and 14 per cent for deficient rainfall.

Ramesh said the country would not face deficient rainfall during monsoon season this year.

As the extreme sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans particularly ENSO conditions over the Pacific (El Nino or La Nina) are known to have strong influence on the Indian summer monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the sea surface conditions over the Pacific and Indian oceans. El Niño is an abnormal condition over Equatorial Pacific Ocean, with warming over central and east Pacific Ocean. The latest forecasts from Indian and global models indicate that in it will go away before the beginning of the season.

The onset of the monsoon in June kick-starts planting of rain-fed Kharif crops. "IMD would continuously monitor the situation", he added.

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