March 23, 2018

S. Korea to maintain 3% growth for 2018-2019: OECD

13 March 2018, 02:19 | Melvin Schneider

Trump trade war main risk to seven-year high in global growth says OECD

Trade war could derail global economic recovery, warns OECD

Mr Pereira said global growth would be led by a recovery in investment, while an increase in trade volumes of 5.2% in 2017 was expected to continue in 2018.

The UK trails last out of the G20 economies in OECD growth projections for both 2018 and 2019, with Britain's rate of GDP increase declining in both years while many other countries surge ahead.

Trade tensions are threatening the best global economic growth outlook in seven years, the OECD said on Tuesday, adding that four US rate rises are likely this year as tax cuts stoke the world's biggest economy while Brexit will drag on Britain.

While broadly more optimistic than only a few months ago, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development warned a trade war could threaten the outlook, and forecast that United Kingdom growth would lag all G20 countries due to Brexit uncertainties.

The Paris-based intergovernmental group said on Tuesday that it now anticipates the global economy to grow by 3.9 per cent both this year and next, from a previous forecast of 3.6 per cent for both years.

U.S. President Donald Trump last week formally signed proclamations to impose a 25-percent tariff on imported steel and a 10-percent tariff on aluminum, causing mounting dissent among business groups and trading partners around the world.

The world's largest economy is expected to grow 2.9 percent this year and 2.8 percent next year.

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Upgrading its forecasts, the Paris-based group in part cited USA tax cuts for the better numbers.

OECD Acting Chief Economist Alvaro Pereira observed: "In this environment, an escalation of trade tensions would be damaging for growth and jobs".

China and Japan were forecast to achieve yearly growth rates of 6.7 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, this year.

In contrast, stronger growth in France and Germany boosted the outlook for the broader euro zone to 2.3 percent for this year and 2.1 percent in 2019.

The eurozone economy will likely see a robust and broad-based expansion, with growth in gross domestic product estimated at 2.3 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year.

"Countries should rely on collective solutions like the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity to address specific issues".

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