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vegassports-odds.com November 19, 2017


Demand for oil to drop

14 November 2017, 08:37 | Melvin Schneider

Crude Oil Inventories Decline, but Imbalance to Continue: IEA

Oil market could tip out of balance on rising non-Opec production

The International Energy Agency predicted Tuesday that a dramatic increase in shale production will transform the USA into the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas by the mid-2020s. But analysts expect the price to not rise much further in coming months as the USA ramps up production.

The report from the Paris-based agency will come as grim news for officials attending global climate talks in Bonn, Germany, as they grapple with ways to contain carbon emissions.

OECD commercial inventories in September fell by 40 million barrels to below 3 billion barrels for the first time in two years. It will also become a net exporter of oil.

Some ministers for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said an extension of an agreement that sidelines about 2 percent of the total global demand for oil in an effort to balance the market was necessary next year. OPEC says that "The global economic growth dynamic has continued its broad-based and relatively strong momentum", OPEC said.

"Yet this is precisely what is happening as a result of the US shale revolution - both for oil and for natural gas", the IEA said.

The United States can look forward to many more years of an unprecedented oil and gas boom.

"Electric vehicles (EVs) are in the fast lane as a result of government support and declining battery costs but it is far too early to write the obituary of oil, as growth for trucks, aviation, petrochemicals, shipping and aviation keep pushing demand higher".

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While the US exported 100 billion cubic metres of Canadian gas in 2005, that figure fell by over a fifth in 2016.

That will keep prices down and help make the U.S. a net exporter of oil - in addition to gas - by the late 2020s. But the expected increase would put the USA further into uncharted territory.

Worldwide, oil consumption is seen reaching 97.7 million bpd in 2017, up 1.5 million bpd from 2016.

Overall global energy needs are seen rising more slowly than in the past, but are still projected to expand by 30 per cent between today and 2040.

IEA said it had cut its longer-term oil price projections from past year, partly because of the falling cost of both renewable and conventional sources of energy, the worldwide push to tackle climate change and improve air quality and the boom in USA shale oil and gas output.

The U.S. shale surge could also mean an era of lower-for-longer oil prices.

Unless OPEC agrees to cut more production, output from non-member states will leave the market in surplus and limit the rally in oil prices, the IEA said.



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