March 20, 2018

U.S. annualized inflation eases in June, core CPI in line

15 July 2017, 05:39 | Melvin Schneider

US Dollar May Fall Further as Soft Inflation Cools Rate Hike Bets

New Zealand Dollar Currency Forecast

The pair has made session high at 1.1469 and hit lows at 1.1431 levels.

In view of the softness in inflation data, U.S. Federal Reserve officials might be cautious in determining further interest rate hikes.

Economists had expected the consumer-price index to rise 0.2% in June.

Still, the economy likely regained speed in the second quarter after a sluggish performance at the start of the year.

However, CPI excluding food and energy, categories which can see big swings, rose 0.1 per cent last month, the third straight increase.

The falling price of gasoline also helped hold down United States retail sales, which contracted for the second straight month in June, while manufacturing output rose slightly but slowed in the second quarter, according to two separate reports on Friday.

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales slipped 0.1 per cent last month after being unchanged in May. Year-on-year CPI has been softening steadily since February, when it hit 2.7 percent.

The short-term range is 1.1312 to 1.1489. It lost a half percent against the euro. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target angles coming in at 1.1418 and 1.1452.

European shares were poised for their best week since late April as investors piled back into equities, though moves on indexes on Friday ahead of the US open.

Wall Street was set for a broadly flat open, with shares in JP Morgan (JPM.N) and Wells Fargo (WFC.N) dipping in pre-market trade after the USA banks released mixed earnings reports, offsetting some of the central bank-fueled optimism.

In commodities, oil prices edged higher and were on track for solid weekly gains following positive demand signals, production issues in Nigeria and a reported decline in stocks. The Canadian dollar was trading at C$1.2715 to the greenback, or 78.65 US cents, up 0.1 percent.

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A trade through 1.1312 will change the main trend to down.

AUD/USD is supported around 0.7748 levels and now trading at 0.7812 levels.

The dollar was little changed against a group of peers early on Friday, as currency investors remained cautious ahead of USA inflation data due later in the session, which is expected to set the greenbackĀ“s near-term direction.

The U.S. dollar remained broadly on the back foot as traders preferred to play the risk-on trade against the yen, especially before key U.S. inflation data later today that may skew interest rate expectations in the markets.

Global sovereign yields had been rising for the few weeks before Yellen's testimony on the belief that central banks were beginning to step away from extraordinary easing, led by the Fed. The Dow futures dropped 5 points or 0.02%, the S&P 500 futures were unchanged, while the Nasdaq 100 futures rose 13 points, or 0.23%.

Barclays chief US economist Michael Gapen said the soft data does not change his view that the Fed will start unwinding its balance sheet in September and raise interest rates in December.

The yield on the 10-year note fell five basis points to 2.298% after earlier dropping as low as 2.75%.

Royal Mail RMG.L shares fell 2.4 percent after it replaced its pension plan, giving employees a choice between defined benefit or contribution pension scheme after opposition from trade unions.

That view was further reinforced by other US policymakers such as Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kalpan on Thursday, though analysts were wary of kicking the dollar lower before USA inflation data. Treasuries are focused on the data however and not Kaplan's comments.

Chandler said in the near term, the euro could reach $1.16.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 rose 46 cents to settle at $46.54 per barrel.

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